Fibre-Based Food Packaging Expected to Dominate by 2045 Amid Regulatory Changes

A recent study by Smithers and UPM Specialty Materials forecasts that fibre-based food packaging will become the leading sustainable material by 2045. This shift is attributed to advancements in barrier coating technologies, increasing global regulations, and a significant consumer move away from single-use plastics.

The study, which involved insights from over 230 packaging professionals, indicates that the market share of fibre-based packaging is projected to rise from 37% today to 42% by 2045. Notably, 71% of respondents believe that fibre-based packaging will be recognized as the most sustainable option, thanks to innovations that enhance its functionality in food applications traditionally dominated by plastics.

Janne Varvemaa, Director of Products and Technology at UPM Specialty Materials, emphasized the importance of supporting customers during this transition, ensuring that high-performance, sustainable solutions are available without compromising on functionality.

The report also highlights a future where sustainability is mandated by government regulations rather than being a mere brand differentiator. A significant 71% of survey participants anticipate that such regulations will reshape packaging choices, with Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) schemes and eco-modulation fees becoming critical in guiding material selection.

Recycling rates for food packaging are expected to increase from 31% in 2030 to 37% by 2045. However, challenges remain, particularly in regions like the US and Asia-Pacific, where infrastructure and regulatory frameworks are less developed compared to Europe.

Ciaran Little, VP of Global Consulting Information Division at Smithers, noted the industry’s commitment to enhancing recycling rates and adapting to new regulations, particularly as EPR and eco-modulation influence material choices. The ongoing innovation in barrier technologies is crucial for enabling fibre-based packaging to effectively compete with plastic alternatives.

For a comprehensive overview of the findings and expert insights, the full report, “Sustainable Food Packaging to 2045,” is available for download.